Historically, Afghanistan’s Strategic Role has been central in shaping US-Pakistan Relations. Whether it was the jihad against the Soviet Union during General Zia’s dictatorship or the support provided against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the War on Terror, events in Afghanistan have significantly influenced ties between the two nations. An interesting historical pattern emerges: both Republican Administrations & Military Ties were strongest under Republican presidents like Reagan in the 1980s and George W. Bush in the 2000s. Experts argue that military and security cooperation peaked during these eras. On the other hand, both General Zia and General Musharraf faced criticism for overthrowing democratic governments, yet they continued to receive US Foreign Policy in South Asia support due to strategic necessities. It appears that history is repeating itself. Once again, a Republican president—Donald Trump & Pakistan—is in power in the US, while Pakistan has a fragile democratic government backed by Pakistan’s Military Establishment. While the government faces Economic Instability in Pakistan, the establishment is also criticized for alleged interference in Political Leadership and Governance. Amid rising terrorist attacks, deteriorating Pakistan-Afghanistan Tensions, and other challenges, President Trump’s praise for Pakistan comes as a breath of fresh air for both the government and the establishment. During his address to Congress on Tuesday, Trump thanked Pakistan for assisting in the arrest of a key planner behind the Kabul Airport Attack 2021. A senior Pentagon official told CBS News that approximately ten days ago, ISI-CIA Joint Operation led to the capture of Sharifullah. The Kabul Airport Attack 2021 at Abbey Gate, also known as the South Gate, resulted in the deaths of around 160 Afghan civilians and 13 US soldiers. ISIS Threat in Afghanistan was reinforced as the group claimed responsibility for the attack. President Trump’s remarks were further reinforced by US Foreign Policy in South Asia, with US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce emphasizing that Counterterrorism Cooperation remains a shared interest between the US and Pakistan. She highlighted that Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Efforts demonstrated their commitment to global security.
ISIS, Taliban and US weapons: Can Afghanistan bring Pakistan and the US closer together again?
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also responded to President Trump’s acknowledgment, stating on social media that Pakistan appreciates the recognition of its role in regional security and looks forward to continued Government Intervention in Counterterrorism for Border Security & Terrorism. Global security analysts see this development as a sign of renewed ties between Pakistan’s Military Establishment and the US administration. The ISI-CIA Joint Operation is viewed as Pakistan’s effort to restore trust. For the past few years, US-Pakistan Relations have been strained. However, this latest development raises several critical questions. At a time when President Trump is calling the US Military Withdrawal from Afghanistan "shameful" and advocating for the retrieval of Abandoned US Weapons in Afghanistan, can Pakistan seize this opportunity? Pakistan’s Counterterrorism Efforts have highlighted security concerns about weapons left behind, which Pakistani officials claim are being used in attacks by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups. The Global Terrorism Index 2025 ranks Pakistan as the second-most affected country by terrorism out of 163 nations. The report states that terrorism-related incidents in Pakistan have increased by 45%, with attacks rising from 517 in 2023 to 1,099 in 2024. The report also highlights that terrorist activities in Pakistan have escalated since the Taliban’s Role in Regional Stability became dominant in Afghanistan, with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) being the primary perpetrator. Meanwhile, Pakistan-Afghanistan Tensions remain high, with Pakistan repeatedly accusing the Taliban of being weak, alleging that Afghan soil is used for terrorist activities against Pakistan—an allegation the Taliban has consistently denied. Given these circumstances—US Concerns Over the Rise of ISIS, Taliban’s Role in Regional Stability, and the issue of Abandoned US Weapons in Afghanistan—could these factors bring Pakistan and the US closer once again? Kamran Bokhari, Senior Director at the US-based think tank New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, spoke about this intelligence operation. He stated that many details about this joint intelligence cooperation between the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies are still unknown. It remains unclear whether this cooperation was limited to a single arrest or if it extends to other matters. He explained that the revival of US-Pakistan relations has multiple dimensions, but counterterrorism is no longer as significant for the US as it once was. Previously, the US was concerned about the Taliban returning to power, but after the 2021 withdrawal, Washington decided to reduce its losses and costs, making the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan less of a concern. As a result, counterterrorism’s strategic importance for the US has diminished.
Gone are the days when money came from the US in the name of defense cooperation.
A new perspective is emerging within the Pakistan-US relations, emphasizing a reduction in US financial aid across various global regions. Instead of direct involvement, the US now aims to manage regional affairs through key stakeholders in each region. According to Kamran Bokhari, if Pakistan expects to revive past counterterrorism funding-based relations with the US, similar to the Zia or Musharraf eras, it is unlikely to happen. The days when America provided military assistance in the name of defense cooperation or security aid are over. However, he notes that if Pakistan aligns itself with this evolving strategic partnership, there might be an opportunity to strengthen ties, but it is too early to predict any definitive outcome. Bokhari further explains that the presence of militant groups in Afghanistan and abandoned US military equipment theoretically creates a basis for closer Pakistan-US relations, but practical challenges remain. If the US considers retrieving its military equipment left behind in Afghanistan, it understands that Pakistan no longer has the same level of influence over the Taliban government, given the strained relations between Islamabad and Kabul. Regarding ISIS-Khorasan, Bokhari states that the US does not currently prioritize direct intervention. However, Trump's administration follows a short-term transactional diplomacy approach to foreign policy, meaning Pakistan could offer some form of assistance to open new avenues for cooperation, but this would be a long-term process. Analyzing the situation, Bokhari highlights a common trend in Pakistan, where any positive statement from the US leads to over-expectations. If Pakistan truly seeks long-term relations with the US, it must move beyond past assumptions and adapt to Trump’s foreign aid reduction strategy. He suggests that Pakistan should identify its potential role in geopolitical shift within US-China relations and possible mediation in the Ukraine conflict to position itself strategically in future engagements with Washington.
Strengthening extremist organizations could be the basis for Pakistan-US cooperation
US-Pakistan cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism, is gaining renewed focus as extremist organizations' rise in Afghanistan continues to shape regional security dynamics. Dr. Khurram Iqbal, an expert on militant groups in Afghanistan, including ISIS threat in the region, believes that this evolving security landscape could lay the foundation for a long-term counterterrorism partnership between the US and Pakistan. He highlights that the abandoned US weapons left behind during the American withdrawal from Afghanistan play a crucial role in this scenario. These weapons not only ended up in the hands of the Afghan Taliban but were also sold in black markets, eventually reaching other militant groups. Notably, former US President Donald Trump has indicated his intention to retrieve American weapons and other military equipment left in Afghanistan, reinforcing the US foreign policy in South Asia. Dr. Khurram explains, "Alongside ISIS, other militant groups have also gained influence in the region, and it seems they have revised their strategies. As a result, they are now emerging on the global agenda, and in this context, security collaboration between Pakistan and the US appears to be strengthening." He further states, "The failure to curb ISIS could have serious terrorism and global stability implications. When the Taliban and security concerns escalated following their takeover of Afghanistan, there was an expectation that they would effectively combat ISIS. However, over the past two years, it has become evident that either the Taliban government is incapable of taking decisive action against global militant organizations operating in Afghanistan or they are unwilling to do so." According to Dr. Khurram, "With Afghanistan once again becoming a stronghold for extremist groups, it is clear that Pakistan’s strategic role in military intelligence sharing will grow, bringing the US and Pakistan closer in terms of counterterrorism partnership." He points out that US counterterrorism priorities had declined over time, but Pakistan's renewed role in this domain marks a significant development. "As the threats of extremism continue to grow and the strengthening of ISIS in the region makes the situation more complex, the US is beginning to realize the need to reintegrate counterterrorism into its global priorities. In this evolving scenario, Afghanistan-Pakistan border security will be crucial, and Pakistan has an opportunity to maintain its relevance," Dr. Khurram concludes.
Pakistan must first fix its internal political and economic issues.
Shuja Nawaz, Director of the South Asia Center in Washington, D.C., stated that Pakistan’s governance challenges have always influenced its willingness to offer counterterrorism and surveillance services to the US in Afghanistan. He said, "The Trump administration’s desire to retrieve weapons and military equipment from Afghanistan could create an opportunity for military cooperation between the two countries. However, it remains unclear whether American leaders perceive Pakistan as being outside China’s camp, as the Biden administration viewed it in that context. At present, there seems to be no change in this position, raising concerns about Pakistan’s strategic decision-making in the evolving geopolitical landscape." "However, President Trump is an expert in ‘give-and-take’ policies, and there could be some minor agreements between the two countries, particularly in areas related to economic and political stability and domestic policy restructuring." Shuja Nawaz further stated, "Pakistan is currently facing internal financial and political challenges, including a deepening economic crisis and political instability. If it wants to take advantage of this opportunity and play a significant role at both regional and global levels, it must first address financial and political hurdles through effective reforms, ensuring stability for global engagement and fostering reforms for international cooperation."
Pakistan has never been unimportant, but we will do whatever America says
Defense expert and former Secretary of Defense, Lieutenant General (Retd.) Naeem Khalid Lodhi stated that intelligence matters are not always as they appear on the surface. “What is visible to the public does not necessarily reflect what is happening behind the scenes. Many developments take place beyond public statements, and these must be considered in the broader context,” he said. Speaking about the US influence on Pakistan and the regional security and alliances, he remarked, "ISIS is an enemy not only of Pakistan and the US but also of the Taliban. As ISIS and its affiliates expand their global network, the US-Pakistan power dynamics indicate that Washington will continue to rely on Islamabad in this region." He further stated, "After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, there was a perception that Pakistan had lost its importance for Washington. However, this overlooked the fact that despite sharing borders with China, Iran, India, and Afghanistan, Pakistan remains strategically significant for the US. Pakistan was never irrelevant to the US, nor is it now, and it will not be in the future." Commenting on Pakistan's foreign policy challenges and economic and political vulnerability, he noted, “Pakistan is facing such severe economic and political weaknesses that it will have to comply with whatever the US demands.” He added, "The US is once again paving the way to re-establish its base at Bagram in Afghanistan. In this context, Trump's past statements about the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the retrieval of abandoned military equipment must be taken into consideration." Regarding military and intelligence cooperation, General Lodhi stated, “Following a joint operation between US intelligence and Pakistan’s intelligence agency, there is no doubt that this cooperation has politically benefited Pakistan’s military establishment, and possibly financially as well. Further details on this may emerge in due time.” He concluded by analyzing that Pakistan’s civil and military leadership will prioritize national interests and will not fall into the same trap with the US for the third or fourth time.
Trump's 'take some, give some' policy and the potential demand for do more
Will the US once again pressure Pakistan with a ‘Do More’ demand in a give-and-take strategy? Commenting on this, Kamran Bokhari states that the Do More demand was previously focused on pressuring Pakistan to take action against the Taliban. However, since the Taliban are now in power, that issue is no longer relevant. “In the context of US-Pakistan relations, Pakistan is not engaged in any cooperation that would concern the US. Pakistan is not doing anything with China that would threaten American interests,” he explains. He further states, “China’s CPEC project is also in a stagnant phase, and China has its financial investments stuck in it. Pakistan’s financial troubles are so severe that China can only assist to a certain extent.” “I don’t think Pakistan is currently involved in any collaboration with China that would alarm the US or prompt strategic bargaining from Washington,” he adds. On this matter, Dr. Khurram Iqbal explains that in the 15 years of US-Pakistan counterterrorism pressure, the period of the ‘Do More’ demand was relatively short. According to him, "The Do More mantra gained momentum during President Barack Obama’s tenure because there were ideological differences between Democrats and Pakistan on counterterrorism. However, security cooperation is no longer a top priority for the US as it was in the past—it is now just one part of its broader geopolitical negotiations. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Pakistan will face the same level of pressure as before."
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