India is currently facing a tough decision regarding the modernization of its Air Force. But is an advanced fifth-generation fighter jet like the American F-35 the solution to this problem, or should India consider the Russian Su-57? Last week, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with U.S. President Donald Trump, Trump stated that he was working to facilitate India's defense procurement of F-35 fighter jets. These aircraft are typically sold only to America's closest allies and partners, making this offer a significant shift in India-US defense ties. The F-35 is a fifth-generation multi-role fighter jet equipped with advanced sensors, featuring AI-powered combat systems and stealth data-sharing capabilities. With radar-evading stealth technology, the F-35 vs Su-57 comparison becomes crucial in India's decision-making. The F-35 is among the most sophisticated jets in service today, but with a price tag of $80 million per unit, it is also one of the most expensive options. Many experts believe that as India's fighter squadrons shrink while China’s air force expands, New Delhi must make a strategic choice. Should India acquire the latest but highly expensive F-35s from the U.S., or should it strengthen its defense ties with Russia and procure the Su-57 stealth fighter jets instead? Experts argue that the reality is more nuanced than just a US vs Russia fighter jet competition. Media reports often amplify this so-called rivalry, especially after both aircraft were showcased at Aero India, Asia’s largest airshow held in Bangalore. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace senior fellow Ashley J. Tellis believes that Trump's offer of F-35s to India appears more symbolic than practical, as it aligns with his broader push to sell American weaponry. The Indian Air Force (IAF) focuses on its indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and acquiring more Rafale jets. This makes the sale of fifth-generation fighter jets to India a challenge, particularly since India is not being granted co-production rights for these aircraft. It is worth noting that India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is working on developing the AMCA, India's own stealth fighter, designed to evade radar detection. Ashley believes that there is little chance India will be granted joint production rights for the F-35. Instead, any procurement would likely be through a standard foreign military sale agreement. Furthermore, he argues that it is unlikely the U.S. would allow India to manufacture these jets under Modi’s conditions, nor would India agree to the strict oversight that comes with American defense procurement agreements. Security analyst Stephen Bryen highlights several challenges India would face with the F-35, including its extremely high cost, expensive maintenance, and operational challenges. According to him, the availability rate for U.S. Air Force F-35s is around 51%, meaning that nearly half of the jets would be non-operational at any given time. He raises the question: "Knowing that Russian-built aircraft may be more cost-effective, will India really invest billions in the F-35 program?"
Many analysts believe that an India-Russia deal for Su-57 jets is also unlikely. India withdrew from the Su-57 joint development program in 2018 due to disagreements over technology transfer, cost-sharing, and production rights. However, what remains certain is that the Indian Air Force has been waiting for a long time to modernize its fleet, as it currently faces a severe shortage of fighter jets. India currently operates 31 fighter squadrons, mostly composed of Russian and Soviet-era aircraft. One of India's biggest challenges is finding a long-term replacement for its Su-30 fleet. Christopher Clary, a political scientist at Albany University, New York, recently shared statistics showing that:
India is working on producing its fighter jets and is now planning to acquire over 500 new aircraft. Most of these will be light combat aircraft. 83 Tejas Mark 1A jets have already been ordered, with another 97 expected to be ordered soon. Additionally, the heavier and more advanced Tejas Mark 2 is under development. India’s locally developed stealth fighter jet (AMCA) is expected to take at least a decade to complete. To further modernize its Air Force, the Indian government has also launched a $20 billion Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program to purchase 114 multi-role fighter jets. These jets will be manufactured in India through technology transfer agreements with foreign defense companies.
The Indian government wants to ensure a transparent and undisputed procurement process for Rafale jets. The government faced criticism over the deal to acquire 36 Rafale aircraft, which has been stalled since 2019. Disputes remain over five of these jets, while Rafales are already in use by the Indian Air Force (IAF). Experts point out three major Indian Air Force challenges in modernizing its fleet: funding issues, delays in agreements, and reliance on foreign aircraft. As China vs India air power becomes a growing concern, India's defense spending has declined, creating uncertainty in foreign fighter jet programs. While India's military aircraft options include indigenous fighter jets, delays from research and development institutions discourage foreign suppliers from entering such deals. One key debate is whether Russian Su-57 for India could be a viable solution compared to the US F-35 offer. While the F-35 cost is significantly high, the Su-57 cost and the terms of technology transfer remain key factors in India’s decision-making process. The solution lies in delivering domestically manufactured aircraft to the Indian Air Force on time. However, delays in General Electric’s F-404 engine supply have further slowed Tejas fighter jet production. Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, highlights a key challenge: the mismatch between the Ministry of Defense's vision and the Indian Air Force’s operational needs. For example, the Indian Air Force initially had doubts about the Tejas Mark 1. This led to the development of Mark 1A and Mark 2 versions. However, the decade-long production timeline frustrates the armed forces, as evolving technology continues to reshape India’s military aircraft needs. The introduction of new fighter jet technologies further delays the process. Such delays have also drawn concern from Indian Air Force Chief Air Marshal A.P. Singh. Speaking at a seminar, Air Marshal Singh stated that while he could commit to not purchasing anything from abroad and relying solely on domestic defense production, the real issue arises when indigenous jets are not delivered on time. In such cases, he said, it becomes impossible to uphold such a commitment.
He further stated that everyone is aware of the current shortage of fighter jets. Even the promised aircraft are being delivered at a slow pace, raising concerns about India military aircraft options. Referring to the delay in the delivery of Tejas Mark 1A, he said, "To meet our requirements, we are then forced to look abroad to fill this gap quickly." This highlights India's dilemma whether to invest in foreign fighter jets or continue relying on domestic production. It is worth noting that the Tejas aircraft were supposed to be delivered to the Indian Air Force in February last year, but the delivery has not yet begun. As delays persist, the debate over F-35 cost vs Su-57 cost becomes more relevant, with experts analyzing the financial and strategic implications of each option. India's priority is indigenous stealth fighter jets, and for this purpose, it has allocated over a billion dollars in funding. However, challenges remain in balancing India-US defense ties and India-Russia military cooperation, as both nations have offered advanced fighter jets to strengthen India's air power. Rahul Bhatia states that if India perceives a shift in threats, it may turn to foreign stealth jets. Currently, China has two so-called stealth fighter jets, the J-20 and J-35, though their quality is unlikely to match that of American aircraft. The ongoing India-China rivalry in air power further complicates India's defense strategy. Most experts believe that India will not immediately choose between Russia or the U.S. for advanced fighter jets. However, if the need arises in the short term, India may look to foreign purchases to bridge the gap, just as it has done in the past. For the medium term, India prefers to manufacture aircraft in collaboration with other countries. In the long term, it is clear that India aims to develop its fighter jets to meet its growing defense requirements. For India, air power is not just about purchasing combat aircraft but also about manufacturing them locally. The country seeks to achieve this goal in partnership with a strong Western ally, strengthening India-US defense ties. However, for this vision to succeed, India must ensure the timely delivery of its domestically produced fighter jets.
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