In global politics, a single month can make a huge difference. Russian President Vladimir Putin is once again in China, but this time the situation appears quite different. Despite Western sanctions, the Russian leader is meeting with influential world leaders who have recently held talks with the U.S. President on equal terms. Putin’s visit to Alaska, following his meeting with the American president, is being seen as a kind of victory for him. In Alaska, President Trump welcomed the Russian president on U.S. soil, where Putin tried to persuade him not to impose further sanctions on Russia and to avoid repeating demands regarding the halt of attacks on Ukraine. Experts say that Putin will receive a grand welcome in China, where in Tianjin, the two-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is hosting a large number of regional leaders. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is also part of this group, known for his anti-U.S. stance and sharp criticism of Western nations. On the other side, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose relations with Washington remain complicated, will also be present. But this is only the beginning. On Wednesday in Beijing, many leaders will attend a parade commemorating the end of World War II, symbolizing the “Chinese People’s Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.” So, are these events in China a signal of a strengthening anti-U.S. alliance on the global stage? And can the potential bloc of Russia, China, and India (RIC) challenge Western dominance in world affairs? All of this is unfolding at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has already ignited a trade war over tariffs.
Some experts argue that Putin’s unusually long visit to China is a clear message to the West that the two nations’ deep friendship is growing stronger. This suggests that Washington’s attempts to create a divide between Moscow and Beijing are failing. Analysts say that even if President Trump concedes on the Ukraine issue, Russia will not end its friendship with China. Observers point to how, during U.S. President Richard Nixon’s era, then–Secretary of State Henry Kissinger successfully pulled China out of Soviet influence in the 1970s. But at that time, relations between Beijing and Moscow were already strained. Today, the situation is different. Pierre Andrew, a Russia–China relations expert at the Asia Society, notes that by imposing trade restrictions on China, the U.S. is in fact driving Moscow and Beijing closer together. According to him, efforts to weaken ties between the two countries have not produced the desired results. A European policy expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that if Washington believes ending the Ukraine war and lifting sanctions on Russia could fracture Moscow-Beijing relations, it shows a lack of understanding of their partnership. China is the largest buyer of Russian oil and, since Western companies imposed sanctions on Moscow, China has been exporting cars and other goods to Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the two countries have also grown ideologically closer. Pierre Andrew further explains that both nations oppose Western liberalism and challenge U.S. global dominance. They are both nuclear powers and permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, with overlapping strategic interests. Economically, they cooperate extensively: Russia serves as a major supplier of raw materials, while China leads in industry and technology. Yet experts say the personal warmth between the leaders matters the most. Putin and Xi share much in common: both are 72 years old, both grew up under Soviet-era communism, both have held power for long periods, and neither tolerates dissent. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin signed an agreement with Xi promising a “friendship without limits and cooperation without forbidden zones.” Xi even referred to Putin as a “dear friend.” They have met more than 40 times—more than Xi has met with any other world leader. But this visit is special. Patricia Kim, a specialist in Chinese foreign policy and U.S.-China relations at the Brookings Institution in Washington, says that keeping Putin close and preventing him from drifting back toward the West also benefits China. At the same time, Beijing does not want Russia to become too powerful. According to her, “The ideal scenario for Beijing is that Russia remains strong enough to confront the West, but weak enough to stay under China’s influence.”
In this entire scenario, India’s role has also become significant, as its relations with the United States remain lukewarm. This makes New Delhi an important player in a potential anti-U.S. alliance. President Xi and Prime Minister Modi also met during the SCO summit. This marks Modi’s first visit to China in seven years. Relations between the two countries had been strained since the 2020 border clashes. However, India’s potential economic challenges due to U.S. tariffs have shifted the ground realities. President Trump imposed heavy duties on New Delhi for purchasing oil from Russia, a move that has brought China and India closer. President Xi has stated that China and India should view each other as partners rather than rivals. On the other hand, Prime Minister Modi has remarked that a climate of peace and stability now exists between the two nations. Both countries are not only the world’s most populous nations but also major economic powers. Modi announced that direct flights between China and India, suspended for the last five years, will be resumed, although he did not specify a timeline. President Xi emphasized that both sides must build their relations on a strategic partnership, and that friendship between the two is the right choice.
Experts believe that if these three countries unite and realign their strategies, it would inevitably serve as a warning bell for Washington and European nations. However, analysts also point out that India cannot simply overlook President Trump’s tariff measures. New Delhi will still need to strike a balance in its foreign policy while maintaining trust with China. Experts argue that India seeks an independent foreign policy, but the wounds of bloody border clashes with China remain fresh. In addition, Beijing’s warm ties with Pakistan continue to trouble India. Decades of complex diplomacy that brought India closer to the United States may now require reconsideration. Meanwhile, Putin and Kim Jong Un have repeatedly highlighted their exemplary friendship, but this week’s SCO summit cannot be ignored. Both leaders are among the 26 world figures attending the military parade in Beijing. Iranian President Masoud Porshikian will also be present. Tens of thousands of soldiers will march through Tiananmen Square during the parade. For the first time in history, the leaders of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will gather together on September 3 to witness the event. Neil Thomas, a China expert at the Asia Policy Institute, raises the question of whether this gathering represents an “axis of authoritarian powers” on the world stage. He adds that this alliance is unlikely to last long, since its members have differing goals and lack trust in one another.
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