Several senior leaders of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), the main opposition party in Pakistan, were arrested in connection with the May 9, 2023, protests following the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. These protests allegedly involved attacks on military installations and government buildings, leading to serious terrorism-related charges. Almost every arrested PTI leader faces multiple FIRs (First Information Reports), most of which are being heard in anti-terrorism courts across Punjab. Recently, at least two courts—based in Sargodha and Lahore—have issued significant verdicts in these cases. As a result of these rulings, several key PTI figures—Punjab Assembly Opposition Leader Ahmad Khan Bachchar, National Assembly member Ahmad Chattha, former minister Dr. Yasmin Rashid, Mian Mehmoodur Rasheed, Senator Ejaz Chaudhry, and former governor Omar Sarfraz Cheema—have received 10-year prison sentences under terrorism charges. A key point in both the Lahore and Sargodha court verdicts is that each of the convicted leaders received identical sentences. However, in the same decision, PTI Vice Chairman Shah Mehmood Qureshi was acquitted. He argued he was not present in Lahore on May 9, a claim accepted by the court. Legal experts in Pakistan believe this acquittal may benefit Qureshi in other cases involving similar charges of inciting violence and vandalism. The critical questions now being raised are: Could Shah Mehmood Qureshi also be acquitted in other cases? Could he be released from jail and resume an active political role within PTI or as an independent political actor? These developments have triggered intense political debate, with many questioning whether these court convictions of PTI leaders will weaken Imran Khan’s political party or reshape Pakistan's political landscape ahead of future elections.
The slow pace of Pakistan’s judicial system—which has long impacted ordinary citizens—is now being faced by the military establishment as well. According to analysts, for more than two years, Pakistan's military establishment had been urging the courts to deliver swift verdicts in the May 9 cases related to the PTI protests, but the proceedings remained continuously delayed. The verdict process has only recently begun, and to date, only two May 9-related cases have been decided, with many others still pending. Commentator Majid Nizami notes that until further judgments are issued and the full picture becomes clear, it would be premature to determine the exact impact these rulings could have on the political future of PTI. However, he believes it seems apparent that the establishment wants to set an example for PTI, to ensure that future disagreements with the military establishment do not escalate into violent protests and the destruction of public property.
According to journalist and analyst Majid Nizami, one apparent purpose behind the timing of the recent judicial decisions in the May 9 cases is to deepen the existing internal divisions within PTI, encouraging party members to view each other with suspicion. He also points out that many of the FIRs registered in these cases appear to be quite absurd. Referring to the FIR filed for the attack on Lahore’s Jinnah House, he noted that it accuses leaders like Yasmin Rashid and Mian Mehmood ur Rasheed of personally taking up arms and firing, resulting in injuries to government officials. While such claims may convince a trial court, they are likely to be challenged in higher courts such as the High Court or the Supreme Court. However, journalist and political analyst Salman Ghani believes that the timing of these court verdicts is critical and may significantly impact PTI’s future political agenda. He notes that the Supreme Court of Pakistan had earlier directed trial courts to decide the May 9-related cases within four months, a deadline that ends on August 8. According to him, it seems likely that more verdicts will be delivered before this deadline, potentially influencing PTI’s planned protest on August 5. He also points out that the leaders who have been sentenced by the courts have received ten-year prison terms, meaning that any appeals could take months to be processed. Salman Ghani also agrees that the verdicts in the May 9 cases—resulting in the sentencing of some PTI leaders and the release of others—could widen the internal rifts within the party.
While the Lahore Anti-Terrorism Court has sentenced several PTI leaders to ten years in prison, it has acquitted four individuals, including the party’s vice president, Shah Mahmood Qureshi. However, it's important to note that this single acquittal does not mean Shah Mahmood Qureshi will be released from jail, as he is still facing multiple pending cases. Trials in these other May 9-related cases are ongoing. Legal experts believe that Qureshi may still benefit from this recent court decision. If one court accepted his defense stance, his legal team could potentially present the same argument in other courts to seek relief. So, does this indicate that Shah Mahmood Qureshi could be released from jail? Journalists and analysts Majid Nizami and Salman Ghani believe that such an outcome remains unlikely. According to Majid Nizami, while flaws in the Pakistani judicial system might ultimately benefit Qureshi, "there is no visible sign of any deal with the establishment that would facilitate his release." Political analyst Salman Ghani adds that Shah Mahmood Qureshi cannot play the role of Imran Khan’s alternative within PTI, and if he doesn’t serve any strategic purpose for the establishment, there is no compelling reason for them to push for his release.
In Pakistan, social media users have been actively speculating and raising questions following recent court decisions — particularly whether Shah Mahmood Qureshi, if acquitted in the remaining cases and released from jail, could play any political role either within or outside PTI. In response to this, analyst Majid Nizami believes it would be difficult for Shah Mahmood Qureshi to take on any role that might politically harm PTI. He says, “It would be extremely difficult to bring new leadership within PTI or form any splinter group. We have already seen failed attempts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, which only led to political downfall.” According to Nizami, Qureshi is unlikely to act within the party in a way that could divide or control it without Imran Khan's approval or consent. Journalist and political analyst Salman Ghani agrees, stating, “PTI workers, supporters, and voters will not accept any such attempt.” He believes that unless Shah Mahmood Qureshi is backed by Imran Khan, playing a role within PTI's internal politics seems improbable. He adds, “The minus-one formula has never succeeded in history. Even now, in PTI, all value and authority rest with Imran Khan.” Referring to past events, Salman Ghani notes that Qureshi has not been known as a politician of resistance. He further claims that “recently, his son and PTI leader Zain Qureshi has already bargained with authorities and is currently not even in the country.” He concludes that the chances of Shah Mahmood Qureshi being released from jail are slim — and even if he is, the likelihood of him playing any significant political role in PTI or nationally remains even lower.
