Last week, Qatar's Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, did not rule out the possibility of visiting Israel during his first interview with an Israeli channel. In the interview with Israel's Channel, the Qatari Prime Minister, who also holds the position of Qatar’s Foreign Minister, discussed the difficult process of ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. He described the negotiations as "extremely challenging. "Following the Prime Minister's appearance on an Israeli channel for the first time, discussions have resurfaced about the "Abraham Accords," initiated during President Trump's administration, under which several Arab countries established formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Middle East experts suggest that after a ceasefire in Gaza, the focus of the Trump administration will likely return to how countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar can be encouraged to normalize relations with Israel.
Although Qatar did not establish formal diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020 like its Gulf neighbors Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, Qatar was the first Gulf country to establish trade relations with Israel. Before Qatar’s trade relations with Israel, Qatar's then-Information Minister, Hamad bin Abdulaziz, attended the funeral of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was assassinated in 1995. He was not the only Arab representative at the funeral; Oman was also represented by then-Omani Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Yousuf bin Alawi. Following the Qatari Information Minister's attendance at the former Israeli Prime Minister’s funeral, some groundwork was laid for future relations, and just the following year, in 1996, Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres visited Qatar's capital, Doha.
After these two significant visits between Qatar and Israel, a Qatar-Israel trade office was established with the aim of promoting economic and commercial relations between the two countries. In the years that followed, numerous meetings took place between senior officials from both countries on various occasions. However, the trade office was closed in 2001 following the Islamic Conference Organization summit in Doha. The decision to shut the office was seen as a message from the Arab nations to Israel, and it was made at a time when Israel was involved in aggression against Palestine. Former Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani had previously stated that the closure of the Qatar-Israel trade office was also because the annual trade volume between the two countries did not exceed $200,000. However, after the start of the civil war in Syria in 2011, Middle Eastern affairs took a different turn. Key Hamas leaders, including Khaled Meshaal, who was based in Syria, left the country and settled in Doha. This shift gave a new dimension to Qatari diplomacy, and it took on a mediating role between Israel and Hamas, which the world witnessed in recent days through ceasefire agreements and the subsequent release of Palestinian and Israeli prisoners and hostages. Looking at the sequence of events, it becomes clear that two months after the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel, the handshake between Israeli President and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani took place, which Israeli media described as historic. This handshake occurred when both leaders were attending the climate summit in Dubai.
Although the handshake appeared to be a one-time gesture, its political impact became evident over time. It signaled that Qatar does not view Israel as an "eternal enemy" and is always ready to extend a hand. This was further demonstrated when Israeli leaders, including Mossad officials, made multiple visits to Qatar for ceasefire negotiations hosted in Doha. Recently, at the Davos Forum, a meeting took place between the Qatari Prime Minister and the Israeli President, where the Israeli President thanked Qatar for its role in the ceasefire negotiations. The most significant development now is that the Qatari Prime Minister gave an interview to the Israeli "Channel," which was his first appearance on any Israeli media channel. During the interview, when asked about the possibility of visiting Israel, he did not rule it out. In response to the question of whether he would visit Israel soon, the Qatari Prime Minister said, "It depends on how the situation unfolds in the future. We are discussing a peaceful solution for Gaza, and we will do whatever it takes for peace in the region."
Professor of international relations, Bou Diab, stated in an interview with the BBC that the current state of Qatar-Israel relations is not a new development. He pointed out that since the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinian Authority in 1993, Israeli officials have visited Qatar on several occasions. According to him, although Qatar has not formally announced the establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel, Qatar's approach reflects an "open gesture" towards Israel.
He stated that the Qatari Prime Minister's appearance on an Israeli channel is, in fact, a gesture of goodwill towards the United States. Dr. Bou Diab believes that Qatar is aware that the current Trump era will be a "stormy period," and considering this, Doha may have two options: either "bow down" to the Trump administration or express its stance through gestures of "openness" while staying within the framework of Arab legal legitimacy. Bou Diab linked this entire process to the arrival of Trump in the White House and the U.S. desire to encourage Saudi Arabia to restore relations with Israel. He further explained that "During former President Joe Biden's term, the U.S. indicated that if Qatar failed in its mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel, its relationship with Qatar could be affected." He added that the U.S. has always had objections to Qatar due to its ties with Islamist groups, Hamas, and Al Jazeera's role in the Israel-Hamas conflict. This situation aligns with remarks made by U.S. envoy to the Middle East, Steve Vinnikoff, in a press interview. In the interview, the American ambassador stated that he viewed the end of the Gaza war as an incredible opportunity for Arab countries like Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic ties with Israel. Steve Vinnikoff did not rule out that other key countries, such as Qatar, might join the Abraham Accords.
Dr. Fawaz Gerges, a Professor of International Relations at the University of London, believed that the most important aspect of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy would be completing what he started during his previous term—establishing diplomatic relations between Arab countries and Israel. He stated that it would be crucial for the Trump administration to ensure that Saudi Arabia, among other countries, finally joins those with diplomatic ties to Israel. Dr. Fawaz rejected the idea that Qatar would normalize relations with Israel before Saudi Arabia. According to him, the primary strategic goal of the Trump administration in this regard is Saudi Arabia. The U.S. wants Saudi Arabia to take the initiative in restoring ties with Israel, after which it would be Qatar's turn. He added, "Normalizing relations between Arab countries and Israel is an essential part of the plan to establish a regional alliance against Iran."
Dr. Fawaz expressed the expectation that in the coming days and weeks, the United States will focus its attention on Saudi Arabia in order to help it restore relations with Israel. However, he also pointed out that it remains to be seen how Saudi Arabia will manage this without making serious efforts towards the establishment of a Palestinian state. It is worth noting that U.S. Middle East envoy, Steve Vinnikoff, recently stated that a ceasefire in Gaza could serve as a significant step for Saudi Arabia in the process of recognizing the Israeli state. He mentioned that, in addition to efforts to convince Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel, the Trump administration is also working to persuade the governments of Egypt and Jordan to accept Gaza's citizens, to give legal legitimacy to the plans for annexing the West Bank. Based on the facts outlined above and Qatar's foreign policy, it does not seem that Doha is far from the process of normalizing relations with Israel, whether it happens before or after Saudi Arabia.
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