During the recent conflict between Pakistan and India, the Pakistani Air Force claimed to have shot down three Indian Rafale fighter jets. The Indian government has neither confirmed nor denied this claim so far. Meanwhile, a U.S. official stated that Pakistan used Chinese J-10 fighter jets during the attack on India. According to the official, Pakistan shot down at least two Indian aircraft, raising questions about the Rafale jet's performance in combat. This situation also affects Indonesia, as, like India, Indonesia has decided to purchase French-made Rafale jets. Indonesia is set to receive 42 Rafale aircraft in total under its Rafale fighter jet deal with France. So, does Indonesia’s decision to purchase French Rafale jets for its air force represent a major mistake? Indonesia contacted the country's Ministry of Defense regarding this matter, but as of the publication of this report, no response has been received.
On January 9, 2024, the Indonesian Ministry of Defense issued a press release titled: “The Indonesian Air Force Will Be More Enthusiastic and Powerful Than Ever.” This statement came after the third phase of an agreement to purchase 18 more Rafale fighter jets from France, bringing the total number of aircraft to 42. Previously, in the first phase in September 2022, six jets were purchased, followed by another 18 in August 2023 in the second phase. According to the Indonesian Air Force, delivery of Rafale jets will begin in early 2026. The press release also stated that then-Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s commitment to strengthening defense capabilities had once again been “proven.” The statement described the move as a fulfillment of the promise to provide the Indonesian National Army (TNI) with the best defense equipment and to strengthen Indonesia’s defense system. The Rafale jet deal began in February 2022 when Prabowo Subianto met with French Defense Minister Florence Parly in Jakarta. Following that meeting, the first agreement was signed with the French company Dassault Aviation. This was an expensive deal, valued at up to 8.1 billion USD, which at the time equaled around 116 trillion Indonesian Rupiah. The Ministry of Defense stated that the Rafale was chosen due to its wide range of technical capabilities, which include air defense, air support, deep strike capabilities, naval attack missions, and reconnaissance operations. The Ministry also highlighted that another important feature of the Rafale is its ability to integrate with a wide variety of weapons, including long-range missiles and guns capable of firing 2,500 rounds per minute. This large Rafale order came at a seemingly appropriate time for both Indonesia and France. For Indonesia, the purchase is seen as a significant addition to the TNI's new Alutsista (Main Weapons System) program. Since President Joko Widodo appointed Prabowo Subianto as defense minister in 2019, he has been very active in military procurement. Before Rafale, Prabowo signed an MoU two years ago to purchase 24 F-15EX fighter jets from the U.S.
Prabowo Subianto has been very active in the procurement of defense equipment since becoming Defense Minister in 2019.
Rafale vs. J-10C: The “dogfight” between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets the world is being watched closely. Military comparison between Pakistan and India: From massive armies to advanced aircraft, ballistic missiles. Pakistan’s claim of “diverting” the Indian BrahMos missile: Can hypersonic missiles be blinded? Electronic signature warfare: How can claims of shooting down jets near India-Pakistan borders be verified? Some of the key features of the F-15EX include its large weapons capacity, advanced radar system, high speed, and long operational range. According to the Ministry of Defense, the procurement process for the F-15EX is still ongoing and requires approval from the Ministry of Finance and the central government. In June 2023, Prabowo Subianto announced to the public that Indonesia was planning to purchase 12 used Mirage 2000 5 fighter jets from the Qatari Air Force, intended for temporary use until the Rafales were delivered. Although these jets were older, Prabowo rejected the notion that their capabilities would be compromised. He said, “These already contain advanced technology, and we may be able to use them for another 15 to 20 years.” However, this deal was eventually canceled due to a lack of financial resources. Prabowo also mentioned that most of Indonesia’s fighter jets are over 30 years old, and he wanted to replace them all with newer aircraft. The Ministry of Defense held discussions with multiple countries, and France emerged as a strategic defense partner for Indonesia. Prabowo held several meetings with French officials. In 2020, he visited France twice—first in January and then in August, during which he met French Defense Minister Florence Parly. Almost a year later, in June 2021, Prabowo visited France again and signed a defense cooperation agreement. In November 2021, he hosted French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian in Jakarta. Between 2020 and 2024, according to BBC Indonesia's reporting, Prabowo met with top French officials 13 times, including President Emmanuel Macron. While various issues were discussed, defense cooperation was always part of the agenda. The growing ties between Indonesia and France are seen as a strategic move in the defense sector, especially given France’s status as one of the world’s major defense powers.
According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), France has become the second-largest arms exporter in the world, overtaking Russia between 2019 and 2023. The United States remains in first place. During this period, France’s arms exports accounted for 11% of the global arms trade, which marks an increase of approximately 47% compared to 2014–2018. From 2019 to 2023, France exported weapons to 64 countries. The majority of these exports went to Asia and Oceania (42%), followed by the Middle East (34%). This surge in exports is largely represented by the Rafale fighter jets. Between 2014 and 2018, France exported only 23 Rafale jets, but this number increased fourfold to 94 between 2019 and 2023. By the end of 2023, a total of 193 Rafale jets had been ordered, many of which are still pending delivery. These jets have mostly been sold to non-European countries, with India and Indonesia being particularly prominent buyers. India already owns 36 Rafale jets, and in April 2023, it purchased an additional 26 aircraft. The deal was finalized when India agreed to a payment of $7.4 billion. According to Indian officials, these jets will be delivered by 2030, and pilot training is currently ongoing in both France and India. The growing popularity of the Rafale is attributed to its advanced technical capabilities. The manufacturer, Dassault Aviation, describes it as an "omnirole platform"—a jet capable of performing multiple missions such as ground and naval attacks, surveillance, air interdiction, and even nuclear deterrence and retaliation. So far, the Rafale has been used in various conflict zones, including Libya (Benghazi and Tripoli), Mali, Chad, and more recently amid the rising tensions between India and Pakistan. The increasing demand for Rafale has also led its manufacturer, Dassault Aviation, to be included in the list of the world’s top 50 arms manufacturers.
The growing demand for Rafale has also brought its manufacturer, Dassault Aviation, into the list of the world's 50 largest arms manufacturers.
The India–Pakistan conflict has raised concerns about whether the Rafale is truly as capable as it has been portrayed. So, was the Indonesian government's decision to purchase French-made Rafale jets a mistake? Indonesia reached out to the Ministry of Defence with questions on this matter but has yet to receive a response. Defense analyst Fozan Mulufti says that the government must continuously assess global conflicts (including the recent India–Pakistan tensions), as their strategies, doctrines, and military equipment can be used as examples to improve national defense policy. Regarding Pakistan’s claim of shooting down a Rafale, Fozan said, “We haven’t reached any conclusions yet.” Is Rafale truly an exceptional aircraft? Fozan explained that the Rafale is now being compared to China's J-10, which is operated by Pakistan. However, he emphasized that this comparison isn’t straightforward because modern warfare is highly complex. In the context of air strikes, he noted, it’s not just “plane versus plane”, but rather “system versus system.” Fozan likened warfare to a football match—not just a contest between strikers and goalkeepers, but a coordinated effort involving the entire team, including systems, coaches, infrastructure, salaries, and more. He said, “It’s not just 11 players competing, it’s the entire support system behind each team.” Likewise, he argued that–Pakistan conflict should not be seen solely as jet vs jet, but in terms of their entire defense ecosystems. Fozan added that no military equipment is invincible in warfare, not even the most advanced weapon systems. “Sometimes, equipment fails simply because the capabilities promised by the manufacturer don’t hold up on the battlefield.” Regarding fighter jets, Fozan pointed out that even advanced aircraft like the F-16, F-15, and F-18 have been shot down by supposedly weaker forces. When countries procure defense equipment, performance and specifications aren't the only factors—geopolitical strategy, technology transfer, and cooperation in other sectors are also key considerations. According to Fozan, “Why did we choose France? Because the government wants to avoid complete reliance on the Western bloc, especially the US.”
Although France is a NATO member and a US ally, he noted that it has historically followed an independent foreign policy, often making decisions without US influence. He further emphasized that France is a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The Rafale purchase is not limited to military cooperation. It is part of broader agreements between Indonesia and France in other areas, including local ammunition production for land-based weapons and telecommunications cooperation. The defense industry has been a priority sector in Indonesia since the tenure of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), and the current Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto is pushing to strengthen it further. Indonesia’s defense budget has increased annually to modernize its military equipment (except from 2020 to 2021). In the 2025 budget, the Ministry of Defence was allocated IDR 139.2 trillion, which is IDR 26.9 trillion less than the originally approved amount. However, when the Ministry of Defence proposed buying 12 used Mirage fighter jets from Qatar, it faced significant public criticism. Fozan considered this criticism “entirely valid,” attributing it to a lack of transparency and accessible information from the government. He said, “We’re usually just told that a jet is being purchased, how much it costs, when it will arrive, and its features.” Currently studying Global Security at Johns Hopkins University, Fozan believes the government should provide complete and detailed information to the public about defense procurements. He cited examples from the US and Australia, where defense policies are openly presented not only in the media but also to the general public. Fozan asked, “Why are we buying this jet? What are the benefits? How will it be used? Is there a government website or official document available for the public?” He concluded by saying that in Indonesia, defense policy only becomes a public issue after a controversy or scandal.
According to the Indonesian Air Force, the delivery of Rafale aircraft will begin in early 2026.
Meanwhile, former Indonesian Air Force Chief Chappy Hakim, in an article for the Jakarta Post, wrote that the global understanding of modern air warfare was shaken by the recent aerial conflict between Pakistan and India. He noted that in this context, Indonesia’s deal to purchase Rafale jets is drawing considerable attention. According to the former Air Force chief, “In Indonesia’s case, purchasing the Rafale jet does not automatically guarantee air superiority—especially if these aircraft cannot be freely deployed in the airspace critical to our defense.” He argued that “Air defense preparedness should begin with developing a system, not just by acquiring platforms (i.e., aircraft).” Chappy further emphasized that the strategic value of buying advanced fighter jets like Rafale will only be realized if they can be deployed in key air zones.