Newly Elected U.S. President Donald Trump will take the oath of office today January 20 and as the world once again turns its attention to him and his political approach many in Pakistan are also pondering what Trump’s second term in office might mean for the country.
Before seeking answers to this question from experts it’s important to revisit the words Donald Trump spoke during his first presidency about Pakistan on January 1, 2018:
The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than $33 billion in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies and deceit in return. They provide safe havens to the terrorists we hunt in Afghanistan.
These remarks made on social media at the beginning of 2018 painted a picture of strained relations between the two countries leaving many to believe it might take years for the ties to recover.
However unexpectedly this wasn’t the case. By the following year 2019. Donald Trump was seen sitting in the White House with Pakistan's then-Prime Minister Imran Khan engaging in friendly conversations and even referring to him as a good friend.
As Donald Trump takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025 for his second term as U.S. President understanding the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations requires acknowledging that relations under President Joe Biden’s tenure were not extraordinary either.
For instance during his four years in office Joe Biden did not have a single phone conversation with any Pakistani leader nor did his Secretary of State. Antony Blinken visit Pakistan throughout the term.
Additionally during Biden's presidency Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile system faced U.S. sanctions prompting protests and condemnation from Islamabad. Meanwhile, the U.S. presidential campaign began, and both candidates—Kamala Harris and Donald Trump—spoke on nearly every topic during their campaigns, but policies related to Pakistan failed to make it into their speeches or debates.
Analysts observing U.S. foreign policy and Pakistan believe that during Donald Trump's second term as president the approach toward Pakistan may remain similar to that of the Biden administration.
Maleeha Lodhi explained. After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan's significance in Washington's eyes has diminished and there has been no high-level engagement between the two countries over the past four years.
Similarly. Dr. Madiha Afzal from the Brookings Institution states. For the U.S., relations with Pakistan are no longer a priority following the end of the war in Afghanistan and the Taliban's return to power, and this policy is likely to continue under the incoming Trump administration.
She added. Since the election Trump has spoken openly about his foreign policy and priorities but he has not mentioned Pakistan anywhere during this time. This indicates that relations with Pakistan are not a priority for the United States.
After the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan U.S. interest in Afghanistan and Pakistan has certainly declined. However there are many countries in this region that the new U.S. administration cannot overlook.
India Pakistan’s neighboring country is the U.S.'s closest ally in the region while China Pakistan’s other major neighbor is viewed as a partner by several members of the new U.S. administration.
Maleeha Lodhi points out that one reason for the limited relations between Pakistan and the U.S. is the growing strategic and economic ties between Washington and India. The U.S. has chosen India as a counterbalance to China in this region.
Pakistan considers China its closest ally, evidenced by the multi-billion dollar Chinese projects under CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) within the country
Robert Manning a Distinguished Fellow at the U.S.-based think tank Stimson Center, says. Given Pakistan's close ties with China and China's reliance on Pakistan figures in the new U.S. administration such as National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Mark Rubio who are known for their anti-China stance are likely to view Pakistan with suspicion. It’s also possible that the U.S. in its competition with China might adopt a tough stance on Pakistan as it’s clear Pakistan won’t take any steps that would strain its relations with China or impact its economy negatively.
Former diplomat Maleeha Lodhi agrees with this perspective.
She says. The U.S.’s strategic priority is to contain China, and since Pakistan cannot join any anti-China alliance, the prospects for improved U.S. Pakistan relations remain slim.
Historically, U.S. Pakistan relations have depended on conditions in Afghanistan and counterterrorism efforts in the region. However Christopher Clary an Associate Professor at the University at Albany, believes that the U.S. no longer needs Pakistan's assistance in either of these matters.
He adds. This dynamic could change if there’s a shift in the situation regarding terrorism threats in Pakistan or Afghanistan or if U.S. policy evolves. Until Islamabad signals some areas where Washington requires its help, U.S. Pakistan relations are likely to remain minimal.
If we look at the past there are several examples of U.S. involvement in Pakistan's politics from time to time.
Given the current political landscape in Pakistan a recurring question arises: Can former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s imprisonment sentence reduction or release be influenced by President Trump? The PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) has repeatedly expressed hope that President Trump will undoubtedly pressure Pakistan for Imran Khan’s release.
Husain Haqqani claimed: Firstly. PTI believes that President Trump and Imran Khan are both populist leaders and therefore President Trump would have sympathy for them. Secondly, they think they have conducted strong lobbying efforts, which will have an impact. Thirdly PTI assumes that the U.S. can pressure Pakistan for Imran Khan’s release. And lastly, they believe that President Trump holds personal sympathy for Imran Khan.
He added. Based on these assumptions they are trying but I have yet to see any indication that the new U.S. administration is ready to play a role in this matter. At most if a statement is issued it will likely be similar to President Jimmy Carter’s statement during Bhutto’s execution.
Explaining further Haqqani provided historical context highlighting instances where assumptions have proven to be incorrect.
When Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was executed the U.S. was among the countries that opposed the decision. However, General Zia’s decision remained unchanged. Similarly when Nawaz Sharif was imprisoned. President Bill Clinton requested General Musharraf for his release but Sharif wasn’t freed at the time. Instead due to Saudi Arabia’s intervention and assurances a decision was made to send Nawaz Sharif to Saudi Arabia.
But if Trump genuinely wanted to pressure Pakistan, what exactly could he do?
In response to this. Haqqani noted that during Bhutto’s execution, the U.S. lacked any substantial leverage, such as an aid package to suspend or specific sanctions to impose.
In 2007 during Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan, the U.S. had leverage over Pakistan because it was providing $1.5 to $2 billion annually in aid which was essential for Pakistan’s economy and the survival of Musharraf’s government. Hence, it was possible to exert influence. However, currently the U.S. has no such leverage over Pakistan.
He added. At most. President Trump could say. I’ll use America’s vote against Pakistan in the IMF. While such an event has never occurred in history since it’s President Trump, he might make such a statement. However I don’t see any tangible role for him in this matter.
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