On his very first day in the White House U.S. President Donald Trump referred to the presence of immigrants in America as an invasion. He declared a national emergency at the U.S. Mexico border and ordered the U.S. military to seal the border. He also announced his intention to end the birthright citizenship law under which every child born on American soil is considered a citizen of the country. During his election campaign Trump had also pledged to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. But what role does immigration play in the United States the country with the world's largest foreign born population and what would happen if there were no immigrants there?
If we assume that immigrants are completely expelled from the United States the country's population would experience a significant decline and would visibly shrink. In 2023, the immigrant population in the United States i.e. Individuals who were not born in the U.S. Reached a record high of approximately 48 million making up 14.3% of the total U.S. population. Among these 16 million immigrants are from Mexico. India comes next with 2.8 million immigrants in the U.S. followed by China with 2.5 million. Although the number of immigrants in the U.S. is at a record high the country's overall population growth has slowed due to a declining birth rate. Between 2010 and 2020 the birth rate in the U.S. Was the lowest since the 1930s.
This means that like many other countries the United States also faces challenges such as an increasing number of elderly people which leads to rising healthcare and caregiving costs as well as a shortage of working age individuals i.e. Younger people. According to projections by Congress by 2040, the U.S. death rate will exceed the birth rate and in such a situation immigration will be the only source of population growth i.e. People coming from other countries to settle in the U.S. and maintaining the population balance. As a result some economists and pro-immigration groups argue that immigration should be increased to meet economic demands especially in rural areas of the United States.
Professor Tariq Hassan an economist at Boston University states If you completely remove immigrants from the U.S. it means we are talking about a 5 to 10 percent decrease in GDP per capita. This would result in a reduction in per capita wealth and a significant decrease in total GDP due to a smaller population. Tariq Hassan further explained that his research shows that immigration increases innovation within society which leads to enhanced productivity. There fore it is not limited to one sector but contributes to the overall capacity of the U.S. economy. The fact that immigrants are often in working age is also significant. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics although immigrants make up about 14 percent of the U.S. population they represent nearly 19 percent of the labor force. According to Congressional projections between 2022 and 2034 nearly 91 percent of immigrants arriving in the U.S. who are 16 years or older are expected to be under the age of 55. In the United States certain economic sectors such as agriculture heavily rely on immigrant labor.
According to a survey by the U.S. Department of Labor 70% of agricultural workers in the U.S. are immigrants many of whom do not have the necessary documentation. Non Woo the research director at the American Immigration Council (AIC) a group that supports immigration states that deporting immigrants could create severe challenges for many farm owners making it difficult to grow crops harvest fruits and vegetables and transport them to markets. Critics of immigration or immigrants often argue that the arrival of foreign workers willing to work for lower wages reduces job opportunities for the local population and leads to a decrease in their wages. However a 2014 review of 27 studies on the economic effects of immigration conducted by the University of California concluded that the overall impact of immigration on local employment opportunities and wages was essentially negligible. A recent study from Eastern Illinois University found that an increase in the number of immigrants could have a positive but statistically insignificant impact on wage growth.
But what about the impact on tax payments and the resulting revenue? According to an analysis by the American Immigration Council (AIC) immigrant households contributed nearly $580 billion in taxes in 2022 which accounted for one sixth of the total taxes collected in the U.S. Ms. Woo from the organization states that it is not just legal immigrants who pay taxes. According to analysis from the Pew Research Center undocumented immigrants make up about 23% of the total immigrant population in the U.S. Approximately 11 million, 4 million of whom are from Mexico. A study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that undocumented immigrants paid approximately $100 billion in federal state and local taxes in 2022. However Daniel Costa the Director of Immigration Law and Policy Research at the Economic Policy Institute, argues that while the economic effects of immigration may be positive at the national level they can be negative in some states particularly in the short term.
In a recent study he and his team highlighted the large number of low-wage immigrants noting that the benefits they receive often shift the financial balance toward negative effects in the short term. For this reason Costa and his team advocate for more extensive distribution of federal funds to state level governments, so that regions with high immigration can receive additional resources to address any challenges arising from it. Professor Giovanni Peri a renowned immigration expert and economist at the University of California suggests that the pressure on communities from immigrants can be similar to the pressure caused by an increase in the native-born population in the U.S. He says. If construction doesn't keep up this will also put pressure on services and housing. It's just that it's easier to single out immigrants.
If we look at recent U.S. history it becomes clear that a significant number of immigrants or their children have gone on to become prominent business figures. According to the annual list of the 500 largest U.S. companies by revenue Fortune 500 nearly 45% were founded by immigrants or their children and immigrants have established 55% of U.S. startups worth over $1 billion. Immigrants have also played a key role in global technological advancements with many of them initially arriving in the U.S. as international students. According to the Association of International Educators in the 2022-2023 academic year more than one million international students contributed $40 billion to the U.S. economy and created over 368,000 jobs through tuition and housing expenditures.
Despite the significant role immigrants play in the U.S. economy, a Gallup survey from July 2024 revealed that 55% of Americans want to see a reduction in immigration with a broader political consensus in American society that migration should be more tightly controlled, particularly from Mexico. Instead of discussing the role of immigrants in the economy and demographic decline he says. People often view immigration through the lens of migrants arriving at the southern border as a 'flood. leading them to believe it is excessive and harmful. Over the past two decades immigration has been particularly high which may put pressure on the social capacity to integrate newcomers. While immigration has positive effects on economic, social and cultural sectors there may also be aspects that people are dissatisfied with.