On Monday, the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was no ordinary sight, as such unity among the leaders of these three nations is rarely seen. During this crucial meeting, President Putin had the opportunity to strengthen ties with Russia’s biggest buyers of Russian oil trade. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western nations cut trade relations with Moscow, causing Russian oil prices to drop. This created an opening that drew both India and China toward Russia. Now, ties between China, Russia, and India appear to be growing deeper. The three share a common adversary: the United States, which has imposed tough U.S. sanctions on Russia and levied tariffs on its trade partners, including India and China. India has faced a heavy 25% tariff from Washington for purchasing Russian oil, while China is still negotiating with the U.S. in hopes of reducing the tariffs and sanctions linked to its Russian oil imports. The three leaders met during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The SCO is a regional body that, according to analysts, seeks to promote an alternative worldview in contrast to the West and poses a major challenge to American influence. This summit provided regional leaders with the chance to strengthen ties at a time of global economic uncertainty.
According to analysts, Russia now has the opportunity to expand its business activities with India and China, which are already its largest trade partners. The world’s two most populous countries, China and India, supported Russia’s economy at a time when the West cut off trade after the invasion of Ukraine. Last year, China purchased a record 100 million tons of Russian oil, accounting for 20% of Moscow’s total energy exports. Similarly, since the Ukraine invasion in 2022, India has bought $140 billion worth of discounted crude oil from Russia. A quarter of Russia’s total budget depends on oil and gas exports, which also finance its war against Ukraine. Public policy expert Munder Oak notes that it would not be surprising if Moscow offers India and China even greater discounts on oil. Professor Oak, affiliated with the University of Adelaide, adds that for India this is crucial to avoid succumbing to U.S. pressure. For Russia, India has become a lifeline, as New Delhi was one of the few to start purchasing oil after sanctions were imposed following the Ukraine war. Despite American objections, India now seems poised to buy even more Russian oil. On Monday, Indian Prime Minister Modi called relations with Moscow strong, telling Putin that both nations “stand shoulder to shoulder.” Officials in New Delhi stated that the country purchases energy products from wherever it gets the “best deal.” Relations between India and the U.S. deteriorated sharply when Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on New Delhi for buying Russian oil.
As for Prime Minister Modi, the meeting at the SCO summit is expected to boost his standing in India. Professor Oak notes that “politically, embarrassing the United States benefits Modi,” as it signals that India is not bowing to pressure from the Trump administration. Purchasing more Russian oil may also be advantageous for India, given its heavy reliance on external suppliers for energy needs. There was a time when India was a major customer of Middle Eastern oil, but after 2022 it began importing cheaper crude from Russia. Since then, India has enjoyed lower energy costs, as the price of discounted oil from Russia has remained below that of Middle Eastern supplies. Trade policy expert Peter Draper points out that China, during the SCO gathering, is also working to safeguard its energy interests. On Tuesday, Russian and Chinese gas corporations agreed to increase gas supplies to China. However, Professor Draper adds that Moscow may not be able to extend the same discounts to China that it offers to India, especially if Putin succeeds in expanding trade with New Delhi.
According to Professor Draper, beyond trade, the SCO summit also gave China an opportunity to showcase itself as a potential alternative to the United States on the global stage. At this forum, China stood alongside countries such as Pakistan, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, all of which have faced U.S. tariffs. Professor Draper notes that China has long aspired to see the emergence of a multipolar world order, where power is not concentrated in the hands of a single nation. On the other hand, Professor Oak states that the SCO summit has brought the three major countries closer together, despite their historically complicated economic ties caused by regional tensions. He emphasizes that U.S. economic pressure has effectively “forced the three nations to join hands for mutual economic interests.”
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